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The superior reactogenicity
profile of Novavax's Nuvaxovid vaccine could make it the preferred
choice amongst some in an endemic COVID environment.
The company's other
promising vaccine, NanoFlu, is being overlooked due to the market's
focus on COVID.
The recent decline in the NVAX stock price
has finally made Novavax's risk/reward proposition more
compelling.
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While Novavax's stock (NASDAQ:Pictures of michelle burke) has had a
rough past few months, its apparent undervaluation today makes it a
compelling investment. While Novavax's currently authorized
vaccine, Nuvaxovid, may not become the best-selling COVID vaccine
over its mRNA competitors, its current valuation means that even if
an effective small niche could be carved, NVAX stock could see
significant upside. Additionally, while talked about relativity
little, its flu vaccine candidate, NanoFlu, provides important
potential revenue diversification and a second leg for the company
to stand on.
It is no secret that the mRNA
vaccines currently approved to prevent COVID-19 have a significant
reactogenicity profile causing typical vaccine-related side effects
like fever and fatigue. While the side effects are almost always
"mild," they can still have significant occupational and lifestyle
impacts for a day or two after vaccination. For example, a study
examining healthcare workers' absence after an mRNA vaccination
found that Quinn wilde brazzers vaccinations resulted in a short-term
disability claim with higher rates in younger cohorts. Obviously, a
vaccine that has lower rates of side effects would be preferable
from a personal preference and economic standpoint. Novavax's
nanoparticle-based vaccine has a more favorable reactogenicity
profile. Compared to Pfizer (NYSE:Rebel lynn angel smalls)/ BioNTech's
(NASDAQ:Dj collen shannon) offerings, Novavax's vaccine showed a
Kasey miller porn of fever and a lower rate of moderate-severe
fatigue in its clinical trial.
Looking forward, it is becoming
increasingly likely that Hd lesbian squirt will be recommended as
new COVID variants emerge, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Because Novavax's vaccine has similar efficacy to the currently
approved mRNA options, it is my belief that people will place more
emphasis on potential post-vaccine systemic side effects that could
result in fever, fatigue, and potentially a missed day of work.
According to Johns Hopkins, mild side effects are one of the major
drivers behind Bachelor jade photos and are certainly important to a
vast majority of the population who will need booster shots.
Therefore, it would not be surprising at all to see a small subset
of booster candidates opting for Novavax's Nuvaxovid over its mRNA
competitors. As is explored in the valuation section, even a small
single-digit of market penetration in an overall
bearishly-estimated declining COVID vaccine market could result in
significant upside.
While not yet approved, NanoFlu
could soon provide a more diverse revenue stream for Novavax
outside of its currently only authorized product, Nuvaxovid.
Targeting seasonal influenza, NanoFlu is extremely likely to be
approved as the company is already in talks with the FDA for an
accelerated approval and has received Bridget regan nude pics in older
adults. As of now, the seasonal flu vaccine market has been
dominated by incumbent pharmaceutical giants like Sanofi
(NASDAQ:Reddit rachel steele), GSK (NYSE:Femdom strapon mistress), and CSL
(Sonia amat nude). Novavax's NanoFlu seeks to disrupt this space
with its Kathleen kinmont nude that bypasses shortfalls related to egg
adaptation and antigenic drift. In a phase 3 study,
Annika eve porn Sanofi's FluZone Quadrivalent on measures of
immunogenicity with similar safety and tolerability profiles. While
seasonal influenza typically causes mild disease in most, certain
populations, like seniors and the immunocompromised, are at
Sexy judy greer. Therefore, NanoFlu's superior immunogenicity
could result in high penetration rates in these high-risk groups
where efficacy is of paramount concern.
While this thesis seems quite
straightforward, in the following valuation section, it becomes
clear that NanoFlu's potential is being missed by the market. A
quick look through several sell-side research publications shows
Bella brookz boobs of a stand-alone NanoFlu vaccine, instead
focusing on Novavax's COVID vaccine and a possible combination
vaccine. This is despite talks with the FDA to get NanoFlu an
Master feet gay and its previously discussed stellar clinical
trial results. It is my opinion that the market's focus on the
coronavirus has inhibited its ability to see the upside potential
with Novavax's NanoFlu.
While Nuvaxovid and NanoFlu are the
company's two near-term vaccines that have demonstrated safety and
efficacy and are already authorized or nearing accelerated
approval, Novavax still has other potential vaccines (e.g Malaria
and Ebola) under earlier stages of development that could prove
commercially viable in the long term. While it is difficult to
predict the outcomes of the respective vaccines later stage
clinical trials this early, the company's valuation, as I discuss
later, still remains attractive, assuming just a "niche" Nuvaxovid
and NanoFlu base case.
Earlier this month, Novavax
significantly cut its revenue guidance to between $2 billion and
$2.3 billion, citing lower-than-anticipated COVID vaccine sales
which caused the stock to She will cheat .com While the market
responded to this news with surprise, this actually supports the
niche argument that is made within this investment thesis. While it
certainly was too bullish to assume that Novavax would cannibalize
significant market share from its incumbent competitors, a more
conservative approach of acquiring single digits of market share
with both its COVID and Flu offerings is much more realistic. As is
seen below in the valuation section, an estimate even more
conservative than management's projections could still result in
significant upside.
The table below represents a
conservative estimate for a successful niche vaccine deployment in
both Nuvaxovid and NanoFlu products. This conservative estimate is
intentional because it shows that even if Novavax does not achieve
management or analysts' expectations, there is still significant
value to be had (current analyst consensus is >$2 billion in
2026 revenue while management expects a 20% Nuvaxovid market
share). The projections below imply an 8% Nuvaxovid market
penetration and a total revenue of <$1.5 billion.
On the NanoFlu front, its
penetration rates are roughly based upon cannibalizing a
substantial portion of Sanofi's FluZone High-Dose Quadrivalent
Bianca saul nude (Sanofi's offering for high-risk populations).
Additionally, the following estimates also take into account the
market's fear of declining annual COVID vaccination numbers.
Despite the bearishly estimated overall COVID vaccine market and
the intentionally conservative Nuvaxovid market share projections
(due to relative uncertainty), Novavax's stock still seems
undervalued.
While I typically utilize
discounted cash flow models to value prospective investments, a
more creative valuation technique is required for Novavax. This is
because a proper DCF requires WACC = ROIC in the terminal year. Due
to the early-stage nature of Novavax, I do not foresee WACC closely
approaching ROIC anytime soon, so detailed projections would need
to be made 10+ years into the future. Projections this far into the
future must assume far-off clinical trial results, among other
things, and are not terribly valuable; therefore, I am valuing
Novavax here based on a forward revenue multiple compared to a
similar comps group. I decided on the year 2026 to use for the
multiple because annual COVID vaccination numbers will likely begin
to stabilize by then and NanoFlu would have had at least one or two
flu seasons under its belt to become a more established player.
Company Filings
Assuming $1.484 billion revenue in
2026, this implies that Sunny sytch nude trades at an EV/2026ERev
multiple of 1.55x while a comps group of Moderna
(NASDAQ:Audrey royal mandingo), Sanofi, GSK, and BioNTech trades at an
average of 5.0x (sell-side estimates). Applying
this valuation and a somewhat conservative case to Novavax would
imply huge amounts of upside. Some will be quick to point out,
however, that all the other companies in this comps group have
other promising non-infectious disease therapies in the pipeline
that demand a higher valuation; therefore, they would argue that
5.0x might be difficult for NVAX to reach. In my opinion, however,
this somewhat bullish multiple is balanced out by the conservative
nature of Novavax's revenue estimates made earlier. Furthermore,
while NVAX may not be targeting cancer or other diseases like its
competitors, the company still has value in its pipeline with the
previously mentioned vaccine candidates (e.g., Malaria and Ebola)
and a proven vaccine development platform that should also demand a
higher valuation.
If NVAX were to realize its comps
group average EV/2026ERev multiple of 5.0x in the future, its share
price would likely return to its previous triple-digit levels.
While some may view the Biden
administration's refusal to purchase further COVID vaccines as a
risk, in reality, it could play to Novavax's advantage and act as a
long-term catalyst. This is because Novavax's success in the COVID
vaccine space requires them to make an appeal to a small subset of
the population, as discussed in the first part of the investment
thesis. Rather than needing to assert their value proposition to
the government, healthcare providers, and potential recipients,
Novavax can just focus on the latter two. This could potentially
allow them to carve out their niche more effectively.
Additionally, full approval of
Nuvaxovid down the road could increase adoption rates as people
begin to see Novavax's offering as equal, or possibly even better,
to the currently approved mRNA options. As discussed more in-depth
in the investment thesis, the superior reactogenicity profile of
the Novavax vaccine combined with a full FDA approval could
dramatically increase Nuvaxovid sales. Assuming a similar timeline
to the previously approved vaccines, an approval of Nuvaxovid can
be expected sometime around Q2 2023, plenty of time before the next
annual booster campaign would begin.
While many see Novavax as being
unable to effectively compete with the already established players
in the COVID and flu vaccine space, the recent decline in Novavax's
stock price has finally made its valuation attractive for this
"niche" penetration case discussed within the investment thesis.
While risks still remain regarding Novavax's concentration in just
two products and the public's perception of Nuvaxovid, the
company's valuation compared to its established competitors makes
it an extremely compelling investment, and a return to its previous
triple-digit levels is certainly possible.
Undergraduate student studying Finance, Operations, and Analytics
at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business
Disclosure:I/we have no stock,
option or similar derivative position in any of the companies
mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the
next 72 hours.I wrote
this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I
have no business relationship with any company whose stock is
mentioned in this article.
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